No, COVID-19 Didn't Burn Out over Summer; It Got Worse

Crisis Watch Sept. 10, 2020



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Not getting worse

Deaths rate is a pointless metric since it is a cumulative number that only increases with time. A better measure is the case fatality rate which is the number of deaths as a function of number of infections. Since the infections have quadrupled but the number of deaths did not even double it is clear that we are getting better at treating the infections. This is good news. We seem to have forgotten that the purpose of the lockdowns was to flatten the curve. This means our political leaders implemented measures to slow the spread of COVID 19 in order to prevent overwhelming our health care facilities. In other words we will still be getting the virus but not all at once. The idea that no one else should get sick and die somehow replaced that in the mind of the public. The infection has to work its way through the population one way or another since there is no guarantee that we will ever get a vaccine. If we did get a vaccine a large number of people would refuse to take it anyway so we cannot hang our hope on that. A summer spike in infections is actually a good thing since it is easier to treat now before the flu season arrives and we are once again crowding indoors. And since the spike is occurring among college students who are largely unaffected by the virus we are building toward herd immunity. This is a good news story being spun as a crisis by fear mongers. We should be focusing our preventive efforts on the vulnerable instead of wringing our hands over meaningless numbers.

Kevin more than 1 year ago