Five Possible Paths for 21st Century Churches

Doubter's Parish

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It’s no secret that organized religion is in trouble. Over the past few decades the American church has seen a free fall in membership, attendance, and reputation. Current data suggests the steep decline has stabilized for now. But the long-term trajectory doesn’t look particularly promising.

Given these sobering realities, almost everyone involved in the life of the American church is asking, “Where do we go from here?” There’s no singular answer to that question. If you scout out today’s religious environment, you’ll see churches taking a wide variety of paths. I’ll briefly review five of them in this month’s post.

1. Maintain the Status Quo

As usual, most churches are trying to maintain the status quo. And it’s easy to understand why. It’s what we know. It keeps us in our comfort zones. It’s the path of least resistance. It avoids change and conflict. And most churches, even those in decline, can survive in a status-quo mode for a very long time.

Of course, if the current status quo is vibrant and healthy, it makes sense to maintain it—as long as churches regularly evaluate themselves and make adjustments as needed. However, for stagnant congregations, maintaining the status quo can be costly.

Years ago, I had a long conversation with a Vietnam War vet. He told me, “When I first went to Vietnam, I had a clear sense of mission—to save the world from communism. But as the weeks and months progressed and I saw the insanity of the war, I developed a new mission—to survive another day.”

That same dynamic happens to many congregations. They begin with a keen sense of mission to reach people for Christ and church and to serve their community in significant ways. But over the years they slowly lose sight of their original animating vision. Their new purpose becomes institutional survival. Like that Vietnam vet, they are simply trying to “survive another day.”

When a church hits survival mode, the primary goal becomes retaining enough people to sustain a few programs, keep up the building, and pay the bills. Surviving another day is hardly a mission worthy of our time and energy. Still, large numbers of congregations choose to maintain the status quo for as long as possible rather than make difficult adjustments.

2. Shift Right

The data are clear. Most American churches and churchgoers are conservative, both theologically and politically. For example, Ryan Burge (a political scientist and data analyst who studies religion) discovered that from 2008 to 2018, 27 out of 34 Christian traditions surveyed became more conservative, including most mainline denominations. This rightward trend, which has been brewing for decades, has only accelerated since then.

As a result, far more Americans are looking for conservative congregations than liberal ones. Given this reality, shifting right can be a smart move for churches seeking to reach this large cohort of traditional believers. Although I’m not theologically conservative and disagree with many of their positions, for churches with a genuinely conservative worldview, making a rightward theological shift can be authentic, appropriate, and strategic.

While shifting right theologically can be justified, shifting right politically is fraught with danger. However, in today’s highly politicized environment, the temptation to do so is strong. Especially when you are in the majority. And, at least in the religious world, conservative Republicans are definitely in the majority.

As Gallup senior scientist Frank Newport reported in 2023, “Everything else being equal, the more religious the individual in the U.S. today, the higher the probability that the individual identifies with or leans toward the Republican party.”  That’s even more true in 2025.

As Ryan Burge recently wrote, “There’s plenty of evidence that American religion is now inextricably linked to one political viewpoint.” In case you’re wondering, he’s not talking about Democrats. And according to Burge’s research, the relatively small percentage of Democrats who attend church on a regular basis tends to be fairly conservative. As Burge notes, “The more Democrats go to church, the more they look like Republicans.”

In response to this clear partisan preference among today’s churchgoers, some American congregations are openly identifying with conservative GOP politics. For example, in my home state of Tennessee, a small but growing number of churches have experienced dramatic growth in recent years by intentionally becoming unabashed Trump-loving MAGA churches.

I’m obviously not recommending this option. Partisan MAGA religion  violates every value I hold as a Christian, an American, and a human being. It’s also the antithesis of everything Jesus stood for. But, at least in my neck of the (red) woods, MAGA religion can fill pews. Tragically, some churches, sensing the conservative political mood of most American churchgoers, are making this toxic partisan shift, especially among evangelical nondenominational megachurches.

3. Shift Left

Although small in number, some churches are intentionally shifting left. While that may seem counterintuitive in today’s religiously conservative environment, it actually makes sense. Yes, the vast majority of churchgoing Americans (evangelical, mainline, and Catholic) are conservative. But a good number of people in almost every community still want and need a progressive expression of Christian faith. And since few viable progressive congregations exist, some churches have decided to make liberal-minded people their niche and have thrived as a result.

For example, I once served a United Methodist church in an overwhelmingly conservative, GOP, evangelical, “Bible-Belt” community with large numbers of religious-right congregations. After a lot of conversation and reflection, we decided to provide an alternative. We boldly embraced and unapologetically communicated our identity as a center-left mainline congregation of “Open Hearts, Open Minds, and Open Doors.”

If anything, we underestimated the need for a progressive religious option in our town. Over the next ten years we gained more than a thousand new members (adults and children) and more than doubled our attendance. Large numbers of people who had given up on religious-right churches decided to give us a try. And a significant percentage of them stayed. For more information about this story see “How a Two-Hundred-Year-Old, Declining Mainline Church Got Its Groove Back” and “You Need to Find a Niche.”

Clearly, not every church can or should shift leftward. This only works when it represents the core identity of the congregation and when the community dynamics are right. And, just as shifting politically right damages the soul of a church, so does shifting politically left. In short, the world does not need partisan churches, left or right.

However, when a congregation can authentically offer healthy progressive theology, along with a (nonpartisan) commitment to living out the social implications of the gospel, positive results can occur. Most churches are not good candidates for this path. But for some congregations, shifting left can be a life-giving strategy, both for themselves and their community.

4. Become an “Unchurch”

I’m old enough to remember the creative advertising campaign for 7-UP in the late 1960s and early 1970s. The point of the “Uncola” campaign, including the unique “Uncola Man,” was to differentiate 7-UP from Coke and Pepsi. The ads communicated the message that 7-UP was not a cola—and proud of it. In short, they provided an “Uncola” alternative to traditional soft drinks.

A similar movement is happening in today’s religious marketplace. Creative faith leaders around the country are offering their communities an assortment of “Unchurch” options. One example is the house church movement, which offers people an intimate, informal, and noninstitutional experience of Christian community.

As noted before, I’m currently part of a home-based progressive retired clergy group which serves, for all practical purposes, as a house church for our members. This unique group has become a rich experience of Christian community. As one of our members recently said, “This group is more ‘church’ to me than traditional church ever was.”

Another example of the “Unchurch” movement is congregations that seek to live out what Brian McLaren calls “stage four” faith. According to McLaren, stage-four faith is post-doctrinal. It’s not about religious beliefs but about living a life of love. This expression of faith minimizes doctrines, embraces paradox, exudes humility, welcomes diversity, cares about the common good, and seeks to live out “faith that expresses itself in love.”

According to McLaren, stage-four faith communities need to be “big on action, big on love, small on beliefs, and small on bureaucracy.” Unfortunately, few established churches are willing to make the shift to “stage-four” faith communities. But some will. And a growing number of new churches seek to emulate this model.

I’m no expert on this subject. All my pastorates were in traditional churches. But I do know this: If a “stage-four” church existed in my community, I’d be part of it. In fact, after retirement, I considered starting this kind of “Unchurch” in my town. I was going to call it “Friends for the Journey.” It would have targeted the “spiritual but not religious” crowd. But in the end, I decided to put my retirement energy into a writing ministry instead, including Doubter’s Parish.

It’s beyond the scope of this article (and my expertise) to lay out principles and strategies for an “Unchurch” model of Christian community. But for those visionary leaders trying to create places like this, I’m rooting for you. Given the discouraging state of institutional religion in America, we desperately need alternative models for doing church in the twenty-first century. (Editor's note: The "Fresh Expressions" initiative is an example of the "unchurch" model within the United Methodist Church).

5. Die with Dignity

After years of struggle, some churches finally come to the conclusion that they are no longer sustainable. So they decide to die with dignity. Part of that process is choosing a satisfying strategy for dispersing their facilities and financial resources. An important part of dying with dignity is holding a final worship service where the congregation acknowledges their loss but also celebrates the many contributions they have made.

Several years ago, I received an invitation to the final worship service of a small congregation I once briefly served. Since I was unable to attend, I sent a letter to the congregation to be read by the district superintendent. In the letter I shared some of my good memories of the church. Then I wrote the following words:

I’m sure today is a difficult time for you. It’s hard to close a church. But every congregation, like every person, has a life cycle of birth, growth, maturity, decline, and death. It’s the natural order of life. Even the churches of the New Testament came to an end.

However, churches never really die. Every person who has ever been connected to this good church carries the congregation with them for the rest of their lives. Every member and friend touched by you over the years, including me, has been forever enriched by your faithfulness.

May God’s blessing be with you on this eventful day. And even in your sadness, I hope you will always be grateful for—and celebrate—all the years you served God and your community, and the many lives you have touched. Please remember that these kinds of kingdom contributions never fade away in the eyes of God.

These five possible paths for 21st century churches—retain the status quo, shift right, shift left, become an “unchurch,” and die with dignity—are certainly not exhaustive. But they do represent a few of the ways congregations are navigating today’s uncertain times. If you would like to share additional paths you see congregations taking, including your own, please send me an email. I always love hearing from Doubter’s Parish readers.