United Methodist commentators are all agog over the official launch of the Wesleyan Covenant Association. After 30 years of observing various conservative efforts to keep gays at bay – Good News, the Houston Declaration, the Memphis Declaration, the Confessing Movement – I'm a lot more "meh" about it.

Granted, the Wesleyan Covenant Association's numbers seem gigantic from a freestanding point of view: 1,800 in attendance at its formal opening Oct. 7 in Chicago. That's a big meeting, all right, but that number is a drop in the bucket when compared to other United Methodist contexts.

Here's one example: the North Texas Annual Conference where I live and work has a population of some 100,000 clergy and laity, yet it also has in Dallas seven Reconciling United Methodist congregations with memberships totaling roughly the equivalent of the WCA's inaugural attendance. That's the largest known concentration in a single city of congregations affiliated with the Reconciling Ministries Network. All of them hold a theology divergent from that of the WCA regarding the acceptability of same-sex covenantal relationships and the fitness of LGBTQI people to serve in ordained ministry. 

Another example from reader John Robert Elford: In Austin, Texas, with fewer but larger Reconciling congregations, the total number of members is 2-1/2 times the number of WCA attendees -- 4,500 United Methodists.

In an even larger context, compare the WCA's Chicago attendance to the total membership of the UMC: 1,800 like-minded people out of some 12 million United Methodists worldwide. Even with representatives from Africa's Central Conferences among those 1,800, that still leaves literally millions of clergy and laity who are not, and most likely don't intend to become, WCA members.

Just because the WCA claims orthodox identity and heritage doesn't make it God's chosen instrument to save The United Methodist Church.

From a longterm perspective, the Wesleyan Covenant Association descends from decades-old traditionalist campaigns. Clearly the WCA founders hope that a seemingly new wine will invigorate their followers. In reality, the WCA offers little more than a new wineskin dressing up a very old wine that has turned to vinegar.

I'm glad for whatever spiritual "high" those attending the Oct. 7 achieved, but I doubt that their experience represents the exclusive anointing of God's Holy Spirit for their cause. As Ministry Matters editor Shane Raynor, who attended the Chicago meeting, rightly observes, those of progressive inclinations enjoy similar jubilations when gathered together. I also agree with my esteemed colleague that while the WCA publicly professes loyalty to The United Methodist Church, its organizers have clearly set up sufficient mechanisms to create their own denomination should they be so inclined.

It's the latter prospect that gives me pause, because the hijacking of the 2016 General Conference by conservative forces demonstrated their political power. It's entirely possible that the WCA and its followers could seek to hold the denomination hostage: Give us our way or we'll take our marbles and build a new church. 

Still, just because the WCA claims orthodox identity and heritage doesn't make it God's chosen instrument to save The United Methodist Church. The Pharisees were also "orthodox," but their unreasoning adherence to oppressive rules kept both them and the Jewish people from experiencing God in full, as Jesus demonstrated to religious leaders of his day (Matthew 12:1-7).

So for what it's worth, this senior observer's counsel regarding the Wesleyan Covenant Association is: be watchful and wait it out. If the WCA is truly of God, then we humans can do nothing to stop it. However, if it's constructed out of hubris capitalizing on a backlash to rule-breaking, it won't be able to withstand God's boundless grace that upends all human self-righteousness.

A professional journalist for more than four decades and a certified spiritual director, Cynthia B. Astle serves as editor and founder of United Methodist Insight.