What If We’re Experiencing One Giant Extinction Burst?

Opinion

by

Perspectives

Baptist News Global  |  March 4, 2026

I had lunch with a friend a few days ago, and the conversation inevitably turned to what is happening in our body politic. She then said something I can’t stop thinking about: “What if what’s happening in our country is like an extinction burst, and all of this will stop soon?”

I never had heard the term “extinction burst,” but contrary to my initial assumption it has nothing to do with the demise of humankind. Rather, extinction burst is used in behavioral psychology — in particular, Applied Behavioral Analysis therapy, a modality used to help children with behavior issues.

The idea of extinction bursts is rooted in the work of psychologist B.F. Skinner. Essentially, Skinner spent a lot of time looking at how to positively change the behavior of children and explored the differing outcomes produced by negative reinforcement (scolding a child) versus positive reinforcement (rewarding good behavior).

One thing Skinner noticed in his lab is that when a bad behavior is on its way out (heading toward extinction), there is often what’s called an extinction burst.

One therapy provider describes the phenomenon this way: “Extinction bursts in the context of ABA refer to a brief increase in the intensity or frequency of a behavior you’re trying to stop. Think of it like a candle that flares up just before it goes out — a quick spike in behavior before it starts to fade away.”

So, as my friend pointed out, what if what’s happening in our country is like an extinction burst? As I began pondering that question, I came across a journalism professor who recently posted a short video contemplating the same thing.

Perhaps, then, as we try to make sense of what’s happening, we can look to this framework for new insight.

In this analogy, one can think of the MAGA movement and its leaders as being in the midst of one ginormous, collective temper tantrum.

The reasons for the tantrum are multifaceted. They include things like changing demographics (inspiring fear); a widening wealth gap (creating resentment); rapidly shifting social norms around sex and gender (generating anxiety); a growing intolerance among the masses for behaviors seen as racist and sexist (fueling anger). The list goes on and on.

I’m not validating the feelings of MAGA-world nor am I giving a pass to the actions those feelings are provoking. But I do think if we are to bring our country back from the brink, some of us must attempt to understand what’s behind the nihilistic, authoritarian impulses of our compatriots.

I’m not the first person to suggest we be open to understanding MAGA-adherents. The New York Times’ conservative columnist Ross Douthat writes frequently on the motivations of this group, and while I disagree with some of his conclusions, I admire his willingness to write frequently on the subject.

Returning to the analogy of the extinction burst, American culture was leaving behind a small and increasingly angry segment of the population — MAGA-world. While some of that was the effect of market forces, some of it was a changing culture that no longer was tolerant of certain kinds of behaviors. Think “cancel-culture” (negative reinforcement).

Like children whose bad behavior was increasingly intolerable to the majority, MAGA-world’s behavior no longer produced the kind of response they’d hoped for. They weren’t getting their way. Instead, with the rise of social media, they saw themselves ignored, ridiculed and canceled. So their tantrums grew in frequency and aggression — two hallmarks of extinction bursts.

“If we take this framework to heart, we’re currently living through one last mega temper tantrum.”

If we take this framework to heart, we’re currently living through one last mega temper tantrum. And, those of us watching the increasingly shocking, violent extinction burst of the president and his party might consider dealing with the present situation much like caregivers of children in the midst of a meltdown do.

We must stay grounded and calm. Rather than react, we must respond — something that’s all but impossible if we let the now-daily outbursts rattle us.

We must collectively respond with a consistent message. This will be no small feat because those opposed to the behaviors of MAGA are a motley crew of disparate groups who generally refuse to get along. We are going to have to reach beyond our differences to build a coalition able to speak with one voice in opposition to the violence being exhibited by the president and his supporters.

Some of us are going to have to provide off ramps for those willing to exit the MAGA movement. We are going to have to exhibit grace and be willing to (re)build relationships with them.

In other words, for the Christians among us, we’re going to have to be Christ-like in receiving these lost sheep back into the fold (positive reinforcement). We are going to have to live our lives in a way that demonstrates there is a better, healthier, happier way to exist together.

Mara Richards Bim serves as a Clemons Fellow with Baptist News Global and as the first Justice and Advocacy Fellow at Royal Lane Baptist Church in Dallas where she recently was ordained to the gospel ministry. She earned the master of divinity degree and a certificate in spiritual direction from Perkins School of Theology at SMU. She also is an award-winning theater artist and founder of the nationally acclaimed Cry Havoc Theater Company, which operated in Dallas from 2014 to 2023.