Fire aftermath
Aftermatch of the Almeda, Ore., wildfire. (Photo by Richenda Fairhurst)

Plain Talk: This Is What’s at Stake

by

From Fossil Free UMC

The truth. The impacts. Why we must act with urgency to stop emissions by divesting from fossil fuels at every level.

At this point we have to be really plain about what is happening right now to the planet, and what we risk tomorrow if we do not act to address the climate crisis. And that is hard to do because the problem is just so big. This article will, I hope, help make the case that we must not only divest, but urgently reinvest in just and clean forms of renewable energy.

  • Record Breaking Heat
  • Species & Biodiversity Loss
  • Ocean Heat
  • Hot Blobs and Fisheries
  • Weather Chaos
  • The Jet Stream and AMOC
  • Rising Carbon & the UMC

The reality is that the stakes are so high at this point that people can’t look. They click away. They look away. They run away. As a pastor, I know this. I know the gut-punch of a really complex problem when just living day to day is complex enough.

Greta Thunberg has an analogy. She likens acting on climate change to be like the emergency of a house fire. And it’s a good analogy. When your house is on fire, you focus on the task at hand. You lean on a boost of adrenaline, and with your neighbors next to you, together you put out that fire.

But. With the compounding impacts in 2024, this analogy almost seems quaint. The fire has grown. Every year, the fire grows. Today, it is not so much like a single home awash in smoke; it is much more like the entire town is on fire.

I have experienced a climate-fueled, conflagrating fire. In 2020, a fire tore through my hometown in Oregon. Fire raced through forest, fields, businesses, and homes (see above photo). I was one of many waiting in a smoke-filled evacuation zone, watching planes filled with fire retardant buzz overhead. I drove past burning homes—whole neighborhoods engulfed—to get to safety.

The fire traumatized our whole community. To support the vast relief effort, the state called in the national guard. Emergencies at that scale are inconceivable. And yet, when it comes to climate change, here we are.

This article is about the stakes and reality we face. Other places you can read more about solutions, because there are many. But in too many ways we drag our feet. So here, this is the part where we remember that we must remain focused on the task at hand. This is a marathon and we are nowhere near the finish line. We must take courage. We must stay clear eyed about the reality of the fire around us, and stay on course to do everything we can.

Who among you is left who remembers this house in its former glory?How does it look to you now?

Doesn't it appear destroyed? As if it is nothing to you?

So now, be strong...be strong, all you people of the land, says the Lord.

Work, for I am with you, says the Lord of heavenly forces.

As with our agreement when you came out of Egypt,

my spirit stands in your midst.

– Haggai 2:3-5

Record Breaking Heat

The basics of climate change is that carbon is collects in earth’s atmosphere and trap heat. Since the burning of fossil fuels heat has been rising, each decade hotter. Headlines over and over again declare ‘hottest ever’ years and ‘record breaking’ heat. Yet oil and gas companies extract more and more fossil fuels.

  • From 2015: “2015 was the warmest year ever recorded on Earth, and it was not even close.” –NASA
  • From 2023: “2023 smashes records for surface temperature and ocean heat.” – Carbon Brief & NASA
  • From January 2024: “January 2024 was the warmest January on record.” – CCCS

2023 was hot. But so was 2022, and 2021. The last decade was the hottest decade ever. So was the decade before that. There is no ‘wow,’ it’s currently business-as-usual. Records mean nothing when the heat just keeps rising.

2023 was probably hottest year on Earth in about 125,000 years

Jennifer Francis, Woodwell Climate Research Center

Paris Agreement 1.5ºC goal breached.

January 2024’s heat was so high the measurement showed January heat to be 1.66ºC over the pre-industrial age average. January 2024 was also one of 12 months in a row where the 1.5ºC advised limit was breached, per CCCS. While this is an unwelcome threshold, overall global averages are still under 1.5ºC temperature rise, though a recent study might change that assessment.

A new study of deep sea life, sponge skeletons, suggests that we need to adjust our baseline. Pre-industrial temps may have been cooler. The new study shows current warming has already passed the 1.5º mark globally, and maybe we have already reached 1.7ºC warming above pre-fossil fuel levels. New study says the world blew past 1.5 degrees of warming 4 years ago, The Grist.

Unlivable temperatures – Can humans survive this heat? No.

As we move recklessly toward 2ºC warming, the Lancet warns deaths of older adults from heat could increase 370%. ‘Paying in lives’: health of billions at risk from global heating, warns report. Inaction on the climate crisis is ‘costing lives and livelihoods’ due to extreme heat, food insecurity and infectious diseases, say scientists – The Guardian.

Not only is the heat rising, but so are the number of days per year that unendurable heat will occur. More days per year and warmer nights means that living bodies don’t get the opportunity to cool off.

The ‘dry’ heat will be bad enough, but ‘Wet bulb’ heat in humid regions is all the more deadly. ‘Wet bulb’ is a temperature measurement that combines heat and humidity to measure the actual conditions. Recent studies confirm ‘wet bulb’ temperatures will mean days where the heat will exceed human capacity, affecting billions with unbearable heat. This is already occurring, and will only worsen with every uptick of the gauge, effecting people globally including in Mumbai, Yemen, and the Southern USA.

“Humanity’s actions are scorching the earth. 2023 was a mere preview of the catastrophic future that awaits if we don’t act now. We must respond to record-breaking temperature rises with path-breaking action.”

– António Guterres, UN Secretary-General

More to read about heat:

Species Loss / Biodiversity

Just as the heat effects humans, it also effects every other living creature. The hotter it is, the higher the demand for water for forests, grasses, birds, farms and people. This exacerbates drought, meaning that even as the demand for water increases, the supply decreases. Forests dry out and living things die.

Living things also are susceptible to disease, including the spread of ticks and mosquitos carrying dengue fever.

Ecosystems have become playthings of profit…Humanity has become a weapon of mass extinction. We are treating nature like a toilet, and ultimately, we are committing suicide by proxy. source

António Guterres, UN Secretary-General

  • One million species are threatened with extinction – Center for Biological Diversity.
  • Just in the US, 150 species are known to be extinct, with 500 other species not seen in decades and potentially extinct – National Wildlife Federation.
  • Earth has lost 3 billion birds since the 1970s; Two thirds of North American birds face extinction – Aubudon.
  • 16,551 tree species are at risk of extinction—with thousands more to assess – ICUN Red List. 1 billion acres of forest gone between 1960 and 2019 – Grist. Half of the earth’s rainforests have been felled or burned, and the rest will be gone before 100 years at this rate – The Guardian.
  • Half of earth’s wetlands are gone, and the loss continues at 1% each year – Phys.org In Louisiana the sea claims a football-field-size area of coastal wetlands every hour due to the double whammy of seas level rise and subsidence/sinking land. – NOAA
  • Earth has lost 69% of its wildlife population since the 1970s, which includes a decline of 83% for freshwater species – 2022 Living Planet Report
  • Migratory animals monitored and listed by CMS show 44% declines, and for migratory animals extinction risk is growing worldwide, due to human activity – CMS
  • Economic and biodiversity hot spots, 50% of earth’s coral reefs are already lost. – Smithsonian Magazine

Drivers of extinction are invasive species, pollution, climate change, loss of wildlands to farming and development, exploitation of natural resources, UNEP.

Migratory animals are in some cases even more vulnerable as they travel through multiple ecosystems. Their populations are threatened by overexploitation, fragmentation, and habitat loss due to “unsustainable levels of human-caused pressure.” – UNEP 

Species declines are an example of the havoc being wreaked by climate change, which we have the power to stop with urgent, ambitious action to keep warming below 1.5 degrees Celsius. Source.

– Dr Grethel Aguilar, IUCN Director General.

A collapse of nature, “such as wild pollination, provision of food from marine fisheries and timber from native forests, could result in a significant decline in global GDP: $2.7 trillion in 2030.” These losses would be far worse for “low-income and lower-middle-income countries, where drops in 2030 GDP may be more than 10 percent.” World Bank Report, The Economic Case for Nature.

Ocean Heat

The planet is heating up because humans burn fossil fuels, and the result is record breaking, rising heat affecting the oceans, the marine environment, as well as warming the land and atmosphere. 91% of all that excess heat in the climate system is stored in the ocean – Climate.gov

Ocean heat penetrates thousands of meters below the water surface to effect underwater ecosystems. You thought oil spills were bad, in the last decade billions of sea creatures have died off or gone missing. Hot ocean blobs disrupt animal migration permanently. This heat closes fisheries, and decimates coral reefs.

Ocean heating breaks record, again, with disastrous outcomes for the planet, from Mongabay

The ocean also absorbs excess carbon, a mechanism that could help stabilize anomalous excess CO2. But it is no match for the constant emissions from the fossil fuel era. Over the last decades, absorption of carbon has made ocean water more acidic, further imparting coastal economies and marine life, such as oyster farms and crab fisheries.

Ocean temperatures are off the charts:

The temperature is so high now, we are seeing thresholds crossed at many levels. A global temperature rise of 1.5ºC or more would cause irreversible effects. We are getting close and starting to see those effects. Already loss of glaciers, ice at the poles and melting permafrost will be irreparable for countless generations.

Arctic ice has seen an ‘irreversible’ thinning since 2007, study saysNew research suggests the decline was a fundamental change unlikely to be reversed this century — perhaps proof that the planet has passed an alarming climactic tipping point – Washington Post

Hot Ocean Blobs & Fisheries

Gigantic hot blobs of water in the ocean are now a thing. Caused by humans, hot blobs interfere with animal migration and cause fish, seabird, and marine mammal death in the billions of animals. They first were measured in 2013 off the Pacific Coast, where blob temperatures were recorded 7ºf higher than usual. The blob spanned 3 years, and were (and are) an ongoing disaster for marine life and fisheries. – NOAA

Consequences of the hot blob 2013-2016 included:

  • Record setting toxic algae plumes caused the loss of millions of dollars to local economies as West Coast Dungeness crab fisheries closed. – NOAA
  • Disrupted feeding grounds brought whales too close to shore, entangling them in fishing lines, and potentially causing beaching. – NOAA There was a 30% drop in humpback whale population. – Science
  • Salmon returns crashed and California sea lion pups washing up on beaches dead or dying of starvation – NOAA
  • Reproductive confusion in fish encountering hot ocean water. – NOAA
  • 100 million Pacific Cod simply vanish, likely suffocated. – Science
  • Over a million seabirds died of starvation, including Puffins and Pacific Murres. Murres also experienced the collapse of 22 Murres breeding colonies. - PLOS

Climate Change Threatens the World’s Fisheries, Food Billions of People Rely On. More than 3 billion people depend on fish as a major source of protein. By the end of the century, a quarter of the sustainable fish catch could be gone. – Inside Climate News (IPCC sourced)

In the US alone, fisheries contribute to the national economy to the tune of $253 billion annually, and 1.7 million jobs. – NOAA Climate change is already costing local jobs as fisheries close, some permanently. Here are just a few examples, centering the US:

  • Salmon: Ocean Salmon fishing prohibited in 2022 in Oregon and Washington State. – The Guardian. Salmon fishery disaster declared in California in 2023. – California Fish and Wildlife.
  • Oysters: Ocean acidification and contributing factors means billions of oysters are wiped out in the Pacific Northwest, recovery is ongoing – KGW 8 Oregon Ongoing collapse of Oyster populations in Florida. – American Fisheries Society
  • Shrimp: After a ten year fishing moratorium, New England small, pink shrimp fishery is shuttered indefinitely because of climate change. – AP / WABi5 Maine
  • Snow Crab: Billions of Snow Crabs go missing. Snow crab fisheries in Alaska closed for the first time ever, as snow crabs starved to death following ocean heatwaves. –NOAA
  • King Crab: Commercial fishing for red and blue king crab closed for the sixth year in a row in 2023-2024. – Juneau Empire

Alaska’s Climate-Driven Fisheries Collapse Is Devastating Indigenous Communities. The state’s salmon, king crab, and snow crab populations crashed last year (2022), disrupting Native food supplies and traditions—and sending a warning for what’s to come for the Lower 48. – Civil Eats

Weather Chaos

Human-caused warming in the oceans wreaks havoc with climate and impacts the weather. Warmer ocean water together with a warmer atmosphere means wetter storms and stronger winds for hurricanes, typhoons, and cyclones. It means more water in atmospheric rivers, causing flooding, coastline subsidence, and other destruction on land.

Ocean heating is a culprit in the weird non-winter in Minnesota this year, – Star Tribune. As well as the two freak February tornados that descended on and heavily damaged Evansville, Wisconsin. – Milwaukie Journal Sentinel

Weather chaos impacts every ecosystem on earth, bringing with it flooding, lightning, polar freezes, heat domes, droughts, blizzards, and more. The chaotic nature of the climate-attributed weather changes means things compound together.

For instance, look at the consequences of when unseasonably warm temperatures and warm rains melt mountain glaciers. Developing countries are far more vulnerable when this meltwater causes high mountain lakes, which then burst (glacial lake outburst floods) and rush down the hillsides to wash away roads, bridges, schools and homes. These floods soak the lowlands, driving millions from their homes and farms and means of safety, community, and livelihoods. These vulnerabilities in turn lead to impoverishment, migration, malnutrition, lack of education, child marriage, human trafficking, hunger, disease, child-loss, civil conflict, and more. And all this happens in places like Pakistan where the local people have no responsibility for climate emissions and little power to stop the oil and gas companies.

Weather contributes to forest fires, too. Forests along coasts, in the Arctic, in New England, were once considered too wet to burn. Widespread warming has changed that. Drought is drying forests worldwide making them vulnerable to fire. Even where drought doesn’t have a foothold, the heat alone causes drying as warmer forests need more water and stress resources. Climate change also causes more lightening, which can cause ignition. – Phys.org.

Deforestation compounds climate change risks, whether by drought, fire, logging or disease. Not only is a burned, dry, stressed forest an ineffective carbon-sink, but the carbon released during fires further contributes to atmospheric carbon – Nature. In 2023, wildfires resulted approximately 2,170 megatonnes of carbon emissions, of which the Canadian wildfires were only 22% – CAMs / CCCS. Drought was a contributor to more fires in the Amazon, NASA, Mongabay. There is only so much drought a forest can take before compounding events destroy it all together, Carbon Brief.

2023 set all kinds of records, including the record for the most billion dollar disasters. A record, that is, until next year, and the year after that.

All of this chaos leads to 500 year storms every few years and billions of dollars in damages. The US tracks billion dollar disasters, and in 2023, there were 28 of them. 2023 was the worst year ever (until next year, and the next) with a whopping climate and weather disaster total of almost a trillion dollars.

All this and the reality is that none of this is a surprise. Scientists knew greenhouse gasses could have climate consequences in 1860 and 1896, with another milestone of understanding in 1938. – NASA. Research has come to light also that oil companies made serious climate science inquiries in the 1950s: ‘Smoking gun proof’: fossil fuel industry knew of climate danger as early as 1954, documents show, The Guardian / De Smog

So Much More

All of this and there is still so much more to say.

Plastics, for example, which have become a scourge of every ecosystem. Plastic is now forming with rock, falls with rain, it’s in our water and our food, it lodges in human brains, breastmilk, and placentas. One in ten premature births are linked to plastic chemicals. Yet, industry produced over 400 million megatons of plastic in 2022, with expected increases year after year.

Plastic materials are extracted by fracking and like any fossil fuel enterprise the entire process is laden with chemicals and pollution to air, soil, and water – Center for Biological Diversity. Fossil fuel air pollution responsible for 1 in 5 deaths worldwide, – Harvard T. H. Chan School of Public Health. The costs by 2060 for outdoor air pollution deaths will cost $2.6 trillion annually – UNDP.

And we haven’t yet covered sea level rise, rise that has dispossessed Pacific Island, Alaskan, Indonesian, Indigenous Seminole in Florida, and others of their homes, communities, and cultural traditions. The tragedy of the crisis is unspeakable. We must speak it.

Tuvalu’s Sinking Reality: How Climate Change Is Threatening the Small Island Nation – Earth.org

Read more reasons to support divestment from the global perspective of the Central Conferences.

Jet Stream & the AMOC

There is one more element of bad news to mention. As we prayerfully speak to the basic reality we face with the climate crisis, this latest study must be mentioned. An important part of our climate system is the movement of ocean water and wind currents around the globe. Right now the planet has a kind of pump, where warm and cold air and warm and cold water are pumped to circulate to different parts of the planet.

This pump is called the Atlantic Meridian Overturning Circulation, or AMOC. It should look like this:

A simplified illustration of the global “conveyor belt” of ocean currents that transport heat around Earth. Red shows surface currents, and blue shows deep currents. Deep water forms where the sea surface is the densest. The background color shows sea-surface density. Caption and photo Credit: NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center Scientific Visualization Studio (Background)

Air, land, and ocean heat are all contributing to changes in this pump, as is the rapid melt of glaciers in Greenland which are pouring a lot of cold fresh water into the ocean. The pump had been slowing, but slowly. The concern is that the normal slowdown process is now happening too quickly.

The peril is that this is all is happening too fast. Human bodies, animals, and plants need time to adapt to natural changes in climate and temperature. We need the seed to open in sun-warmed spring soils where it can take root. We need plants to flower at the right time for the migrating butterflies to gather their pollen, we need late summer rains to plump the fruit. And we need to pass down this knowledge generation to generation. Without this delicate balance developed over millennia, we risk a multi-system collapse of nature as we know it.

Our bodies, our ecosystems, planetary chemistry, and life around us are perfectly designed to fit earth’s climate 100 years ago. Humans have charge of ensuring the order, balance, and health of the planet is maintained. We must restore nature and our place in it, to our peril.

Atlantic Ocean circulation nearing ‘devastating’ tipping point, study findsCollapse in system of currents that helps regulate global climate would be at such speed that adaptation would be impossible – The Guardian

Rising Carbon and the UMC

It’s all about emissions.

Atmospheric Carbon in 1750 was 280ppm. Atmospheric Carbon in 2023 is 421.55ppm. From the 1960s, annual emissions from burning fossil fuels sent almost 11 billion tons of carbon dioxide per year into the atmosphere. That number rose every year, and in 2022 an that number was an estimated 36.6 billion tons. –  Global Carbon Budget 2022.

  • The average age of a oil and gas executive is 58 years old. During their lifetimes, atmospheric carbon rose 99.96ppm.
  • The average age of an investment executive is 51 years old. During their lifetimes, atmospheric carbon rose 92.12ppm
  • The average age of fortune 500 executives is 57 years old. During their lifetimes, atmospheric carbon rose 99.24ppm.
  • See the carbon level the year you were born.
  • The average age of the members of the Council of Bishops in the United Methodist Church is not listed, but I will guess the average is at least 62. During the lifetime of someone born in 1959, atmospheric carbon rose 105.37ppm.

At the same time, young United Methodist clergy and young people in general attending our churches has fallen precipitously. 2023 saw record low numbers of young clergy (under 35). Perhaps this is in part that the church and its institutions are not attending to the testimony of the young. 59% of young people reported being very concerned about climate change, half thought humanity was doomed. – Harvard Political Review.

Meanwhile in 2023 emissions are higher than ever and the UMC has no serious, measurable institutional engagement other than ‘aspirational’ goals and continuing fossil fuel investment.

We can and we must do better. Our faith demands it. We are not doomed. The UMC is filled with people who care about climate and environmental justice. Their voices must be heard, and action must be taken.

For more talking points seeTen Reasons Why The United Methodist Church Should Divest from Fossil Fuels, Ten Reasons for Central Conferences to Support Divestment, and Ten Reasons for Wespath to Support Fossil Fuel Divestment.

Rev. Richenda Fairhurst is an elder in the Greater Northwest Area of the UMC, living in Southern Oregon. She volunteers with the United Methodist Creation Justice Movement and a number of other organizations at the intersection of faith and climate change. Find her at justcreation.org