Dallas COVID-19 Women
Case posivitity -- the amount of testing factored by how many tests turn up positive -- plays a key role in determining the status of the coronavirus pandemic, say experts.
We’re in the “summer slump” as far as news of the church is concerned, but the coronavirus pandemic shows no sign of slumping. As we struggle with the ongoing effects, United Methodists in pew and pulpit are wondering how best to assess the situation and figure out what to do next.
Fortunately, ProPublica journalists Caroline Chen and Ash Ngu have tackled the question of how to evaluate COVID-19 data to make better personal and corporate decisions. Here’s one example from their July 21 article, “How to Understand COVID-19 Numbers”:
“Both Matthew Fox, professor of epidemiology and global health at Boston University, and Youyang Gu, a data scientist best known for his COVID-19 prediction models, advised looking at three measurements together: number of cases, case positivity rates and number of deaths.
“’Cases going up or down tells you a fair bit about what’s going on at the moment in terms of transmission of the virus — but it’s only valid if we’re testing enough people,’ Fox said.
“When there aren’t enough tests available, as was the case in New York in March, the number of cases reported will be an undercount, perhaps by a lot. That’s where case positivity rates come in: that measures the percentage of total tests conducted that are coming back positive. It helps you get a sense of how much testing is being done overall in a region.”
(Speaking of testing, Indiana University reports via The Conversation that after testing thousands of people in late April, experts determined that COVID-19 had infected 2.8 percent of the population, about 188,000 people. They also found that COVID-19 was six times more deadly than the flu.)
Regarding deaths, Chen and Ngu say once again there’s a likelihood of under-reporting, since public health offices don’t report on weekends. That means there are probably lower counts on Sundays and Mondays, followed by a big surge on Tuesdays. Consequently these numbers have to be examined over a longer time period of several weeks to get an accurate picture.
Be sure to read the entire article and save it for future reference.
UMW to hold online Dismantling Racism discussion
From the Northern Illinois newsletter: “FaithTalks on Dismantling Racism - July 23 at 5 pm CDT. Join United Methodist Women for an online discussion on the United Methodist Church’s Dismantling Racism: Pressing On to Freedom initiative. Panelists will include Bishop Cynthia Harvey, Erin M. Hawkins of General Commission on Religion and Race, Rev. Dr. Susan Henry-Crowe of the General Board of Church and Society, and UMW's own CEO Harriett J. Olson and Transformation Officer Sally Vonner. Register in advance for this webinar by clicking here.”
World Council of Churches offers faith resources
From the World Council of Churches: "The [coronavirus] pandemic itself has become a fundamental test of faith in God and God’s providence, and it invites Christians to earnest re-examination of their relationship to God, each other, and the natural world, say authors of a new spiritual resource from the World Council of Churches (WCC).
"In Healing the World: Bible Studies for the Pandemic Era, the WCC offers eight Bible studies to facilitate coming to terms—as individuals, groups, and communities of faith—with the loss, fear, and confusion engendered by the pandemic, and the bracing prospect of building the world anew. Find the Bible studies here.”
Illinois judge won’t release girl
Remember Grace (not her real name), the 15-year-old Black girl who was put in juvenile detention for not doing her homework while on probation? ProPublica Illinois reporter Jodi S. Cohen has reported that the judge in Grace’s case, Mary Ellen Brennan, ruled July 19 that she won’t release the girl despite pleas from her attorney and family – and concurrence from the prosecutor – that the girl is receiving inadequate mental health care and educational support at the facility. In contrast, “caseworkers for the court and Children’s Village, where she is being held, testified she should be kept at the facility until she completes the months-long program.”
At the July 19 hearing, Judge Brennan denied that she ordered Grace detained because she didn’t do her online homework, although that was the only violation cited by her probation officer. The judge said she found the girl to be a “threat of harm” to her mother. When the hearing concluded, Grace and her mother hugged one another for several minutes; their sobs were heard audibly in the courtroom, according to the ProPublica report. “The Michigan Supreme Court’s oversight agency has opened a review of the procedures in the cases,” the article states.
The case has drawn national scrutiny as an example of how Black children are punished more severely than white children, setting up what’s known as the “school-to-prison pipeline.” Together with the Detroit Free Press and Bridge Magazine, ProPublica has investigated the case as part of its ongoing racial justice initiative.
Watch out for COVID-19 Medicare scams
Medicare issued a stern warning this week: “If anyone reaches out to get your Medicare Number or personal information in exchange for something, you can bet it's a scam,” says a Medicare press release. If you or any of your church members suspect fraud, call 1-800-MEDICARE to report it. You can also watch this short video and visit Medicare.gov/fraud for tips on preventing scams.
Climate activist gives away prize money
Greta Thunberg
Young ecologist Greta Thunberg
Teen-age climate activist Greta Thunberg announced this week that she’s giving away the $1.15 million coming to her from a Portuguese human rights award to several organizations working to halt the climate crisis. The Guardian reports Ms. Thunberg said in a video: “That is more money than I can begin to imagine, but all the prize money will be donated, through my foundation, to different organizations and projects who are working to help people on the front line, affected by the climate crisis and ecological crisis.”
Media Mentions as of July 22, 2020
AU gets boost to establish a virology centre – The Zimbabwe Daily
Pandemic lawsuits from voters, worshipers, prisoners meet roadblock at Supreme Court – USA Today
Wearing a mask is pro-life – America
My spiritual path through the COVID-19 darkness – Religion News Service
Cynthia B. Astle serves as Editor of United Methodist Insight, which she founded in 2011.